Article

• Go back

• View All Content Articles Press Releases Case Studies Events and Highlights
• From All Legatum Sites Legatum Capital Legatum Ventures Legatum Institute Legatum Center at MIT Legatum Foundation
• Keywords None Adoption Africa Aid Alternative Energy Anti-trafficking Asia Banking and Financial Institutions Business Business is Development Capital Allocation Capitalism Children China Civil liberties Climate Change Conflict Conservatism Corruption Democracy Development Disaster Relief Economic Empowerment Economics Economy Education Energy Entrepreneurship Environment Equality Ethics Europe Financial Crisis Food Foreign Policy Free Markets Freedom Gender Geneva Global Governance Government Happiness Health & Medical History Human Liberty Human Rights Humanitarian Assistance Hunger Index India Inequality Investing Iqbal Quadir Iran Japan Korea Latin America Law Legatum Center Life Satisfaction Management Marketing & PR Microfinance Middle East Neglected Tropical Diseases Philanthropy Policy Politics Poverty Private Enterprise Prizes Prosperity Prosperity Index Religion Research Russia Security Social Capital Social Networking Sovereign Technology Telecommunications Terrorism Trade Trafficking UK USA War Women’s Empowerment Youth

Sanctions and Strikes

Sanctions and Strikes

The inexorable march of the Iranian regime towards nuclear weapons has produced a growing international consensus for serious sanctions. After a year of engagement by President Obama, the Iranians have made it clear that they are not eager to reciprocate by compromising on their nuclear program. The international community now appears to be following a logical sequence from engagement to sanctions (while still keeping the door open to engagement). The likely sanctions will be a combination of UN Security Council ‘symbolic’ or soft sanctions and a US-led coalition of the willing introducing tough financial and trade sanctions especially targeting the Revolutionary Guard, which is behind both the nuclear program and the escalating human rights violations. The Green Movement would prefer serious sanctions because it calculates that the people will blame the regime, not the outside world.

One of the current debates is whether the US Congress’ proposed ban on exports of refined oil to Iran will hurt the regime or not. Some think it will cause a windfall in oil prices to those who run the black market, namely the Revolutionary Guard whom the West is targeting. Others think that Iranian history shows that when the people suffer, it bodes ill for the regime. The short term disadvantage of hurting the people is compensated by the long term advantage of stirring the people against the regime when their pocket book is hit. Embargoed refined oil could cripple the Iranian domestic economy and has the potential of expanding the Green Movement from a human rights/social freedom movement to a mass protest over the economy and human rights.

Strikes are sure to follow serious sanctions, especially if they are coordinated between the international community and the Green Movement. 'Iranian oil workers might complement international sanctions by striking at those domestic refineries that President Ahmadinejad is depending on to compensate for embargoed gasoline from abroad.’ See N. Ansari and J. Paris, “The Message from the Streets of Teheran” Nov. 5, 2009 at the New York Times

Back to top