Prospects for Pakistan
12 January 2010, Jonathan Paris, Legatum Institute Adjunct Fellow
Legatum Institute
Pakistan today faces five main challenges:
1. Threat of fragmentation and the loss of state control over various territories that undermine the integrity, sovereignty and solidarity of the country;
2. Security and terrorism throughout the country;
3. Economy;
4. Governance issues including corruption; and
5. Rebuilding the Pakistan Brand.
The Pakistani state has shown itself to be both the source and recipient of instability, but it has also been remarkably resilient. This Report analyses the prospects for Pakistan over a one to three year time horizon. It looks at economic, political, security, and bilateral issues. There are three possible scenarios for Pakistan over this relatively short time horizon; Pakistan probably will avoid becoming a “failed state” and is unlikely to find a “pathway to success” but, as Pakistan confronts a myriad of vexing challenges, the most likely scenario is that it will “muddle through”.
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